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The Value of
Prospects
Example A
Adam LaRoche vs
Ryan Garko
by CSF
Staff
12-10-2006
This is the first in a series of
articles exploring various current MLB prospects, their
progression, and the value they can return to an organization.
The return part involves not only what the player contributes to
their major league club. It also involves possibly using them as
a trading chip to fill a current team or organizational need.
The first example to be used is
Adam LaRoche (1B) of the Atlanta Braves and Ryan Garko (1B) of
the Cleveland Indians.
LaRoche (27) is coming off his
second full year in the majors with the Braves and hit to the
tune of: .285, 32 HR, .354 OBP, .561 SLG. Not a bad result for a
player that was selected in the 29th round of the 2000 MLB
draft. His significant minor league numbers are:
AAA (as a 24 yr old): .291, 9 HR,
.356 OBP, .465 SLG., 275 at bats
AA (as a 23 yr old): .286, 16 HR,
.373 OBP, .467 SLG, 392 at bats
His minor league numbers strongly
hinted at a good ML average, OBP, and decent power. LaRoche also
knocked out 21 doubles at each level. This, in combination with
his other extra base hits (HRs) in relation to his total number
of hits, hinted at developing power. Which means his
moderate .460 level SLG could possibly increase over the .500
level as he gained more experience. At worst, he projected
to 20 HR power in the big leagues.
The Braves are shopping him this
winter, in fact, even turned down a deal for Mike Gonzalez, a
very good LH closer with an excellent track record in the
bullpen. Gonzalez is the perfect pickup for a team like the
Indians - young but enough experience to have a good big league
track record. The Braves insisted on more than just Gonzalez for
LaRoche though. So, as of today, Adam LaRoche is worth at least
a good young closer.
Which brings us to Ryan Garko
(25). Garko has yet to even put in one full ML season, getting
his first 185 at bats with the Indians in the 2006 season:
.292, 7 HR, .359 OBP, .470 SLG.
That's a very small ML sample
size so let's look at Garko's significant minor league numbers:
AAA (24 & 25 yrs old - 2 years)
.280, 34 HR, .370 OBP, .462 SLG, 836 at bats
AA (23 yrs old) : .331, 6 HR,
.397 OBP, .523 SLG, 172 at bats
Ryan Garko does not have the same
value today that Adam LaRoche has because he does not have the
major league track record yet. But they are very similar
offensive players with one hitting LH and one RH. It is not a
stretch to think Garko will meet and even surpass LaRoche's
numbers in the majors at some point in the future. That is
because Garko's overall AAA numbers were tapered off by a second
season there. It is not uncommon for players at AAA to not do as
well their second time around. There are a variety of reasons
that I won't get into, but it happens often. Garko's first AAA
season (at 24): .303, 19 HR, .384 OBP, .498 SLG, 452 at bats. He
also knocked out 25 doubles.
Another factor that will increase
Garko's value as someone plays him full time is that he hits
from the right side. Right handed power is a rare thing in MLB.
A perfect example of this is what just happened in the Rule 5
draft. The Oakland A's traded a player plus $100k to the Tampa
Bay Devil Rays for the rights to the #1 pick - Ryan Goleski.
Goleski got a mention in this sites' very picky
prospect list. Goleski is 24 yrs old and just finished a
great year at AA Akron. What attracted Oakland (and reportedly
many other teams) to him was the great power numbers he put up
at a high minor league level from the right side: 17 HR, 24
doubles, 324 at bats, .528 SLG.
People will say well, he will be
25 next year in AAA and a little old to be considered a top
prospect anymore. The majors are full of late bloomers just like
this. Both of the players in this prospect study spent some time
at AAA as 25 year olds. The only reason Garko has spent so much
time there is because the Indians thought Ben Broussard was a
better option for them for so long. His bat has been major
league ready for over a year now.
The conclusion to be drawn from
Goleski move is the extra value placed on right handed power. If
you look at the makeup of the very good left handed pitching in
the American League it is even more valuable.
So, what kind of value does Ryan
Garko bring to the Cleveland Indians? First, let's see what he
cost them - a 3rd round pick. I would say that was pretty good
drafting by the Indians since most picks at that level don't
make it to the big leagues. To get a future full time
contributor is outstanding. The question is, is he more valuable
as a player to the Indians or what he can bring back in a trade?
When you are playing a 33 year old journeyman at 1st base, the
answer is both. But to gain either type of value from Garko the
Indians are, more than likely, going to have to play him.
Otherwise, they have to hope that a GM from another team will
pay the equivalent of his projected value, which is not likely
to happen.
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