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Cleveland
Indians Rumors
11-17-2007
Miguel Cabrera
Reading various hot stove
reports, the Florida Marlins have third baseman Miguel Cabrera
available in a trade and the Indians are one of multiple teams
interested. They are looking for a CF, starting pitcher, C, and
a replacement 3B in return, with most of the players returned
able to be inserted into their lineup in 2008.
Analysis
The Indians have the players to
pull off such a trade. The assumption is that the Marlins will
want younger players that don't make a lot of money, otherwise
they would not be giving up Cabrera. Miguel Cabrera (24),
doesn't even hit free agency for another two years. Here are the
players with the Indians that might fit the bill:
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
C - Kelly Shoppach
3B - Andy Marte
SP - Jeremy Sowers or others
There was rumored interest in
Franklin Gutierrez (24) by the Marlins in 2006. Centerfield is
also Gutierrez' natural position. Grady Sizemore has him blocked
from playing that in Cleveland. It is possible that Gutierrez
might be an even better defensive CF than the Gold Glove
Sizemore.
Kelly Shoppach (27) could play
full time at catcher for many teams right now. Everyone knows
about the great arm and release but he has the experience now to
handle a pitching staff and is still relatively young and cheap.
He is wasted in Cleveland, basically playing Paul Byrd's
personal catcher ala Eddie Perez and Greg Maddux. That is funny
if you think about it.
The Marlins were also in the
running for 3B Andy Marte last off season. The Indians were the
team that ended up getting him from Boston. Nothing has changed
with Marte's abilities. He is blocked in Cleveland by the
personal favorite of the manager, Casey Blake. The Marlins would
have no interest in Blake since the Indians are already paying
him millions and will probably give him a multi year deal this
off season worth even more. But it is my opinion that they and
other teams would take the 24 year old Marte in a second over
the 34 year old Blake regardless of the money involved.
Jeremy Sowers is the SP that the
Indians could offer, although there are other candidates
depending on what Florida has in mind. While Sowers (24)
struggled and was sent back to AAA last year, the former 1st
round pick is still highly rated - probably middle of the
rotation potential. He is advanced and could either start right
away at the big league level or be ready within a year. Other
candidates the Indians could offer are: Cliff Lee, Aaron Laffey
(AAA/Cleveland in 2007), and Chuck Lofgren (AA in 2007).
The Indians also have other
prospects that could be added to sweeten the deal, although they
should not be willing to give up their best in addition to this
type of package. They could even add a second pitcher of those
listed above to the deal.
So, what would the Marlins be
getting? Well, since they are the team insisting on young and
cheap major
league ready players, there are no sure things - only potential.
This is why teams get multiple prospects in these types of
deals. But the upside and downside of each player's potential:
Gold Glove CF in Gutierrez with
average to above average hitting ability - no small feat for
that position.
An above average defensive 3B
with off the charts hitting potential. The upside with Marte is
that it is possible that he eventually replaces Cabrera's
offensive production alone. Cabrera is the better all around
hitter, but there are not many prospects with Andy Marte's power
potential. His downside risk is around .260 with 30 HR every
year.
The catcher - Shoppach, is above
average defensively right now. His hitting is the question with
upside being .260 with 20-30 HR and downside being a strikeout
machine with a lower average. He will take some walks though.
Jeremy Sowers is a middle of the
rotation type of starter. He is capable of putting up #2 type
years here and there, but in the middle is probably where he
will settle in. His downside back of the rotation.
Other pitchers mentioned - Cliff
Lee and Aaron Laffey are also middle types, with Lee having the
ability to be more than that if another coaching staff can get
him straightened out. Chuck Lofgren is very young (21) both age
and pitching experience wise. He didn't start concentrating on
pitching alone (was a good hitter in high school) until the
Indians drafted him and after his first year in their minor
league system. He has more potential than the other three
mentioned and could be a top of the rotation type down the road.
As far as the question: should
the Indians be interested in Miguel Cabrera? Absolutely yes.
This is a player of Manny Ramirez stature in hitting ability and
would turn the Indian's offense into an elite one. The Indians
could plug him into the 4th spot in the lineup and not look back
for 10 years or however long they could afford him.
It would be interesting to see if
the Indians would leave him at 3B or not. But whatever position
it is, somebody would need to move out of the way. He is a
perennial MVP type of hitter and being only 24 can get better.
He's one of maybe a handful of major league players I would
break open the excellent Cleveland Indian's farm system for.
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