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Cleveland
Indians
Hot Stove
2006 - Trade Ideas
by CSF
Staff
Trade #1
To Arizona: Jeremy Sowers (SP) & Brad Snyder (OF)
To Cleveland: Alberto Callaspo (2B), Chris Carter (1B), &
Carlos Gonzalez (RF)
Arizona needs starting pitching. So do most other Major League
teams but Arizona needs it more than most. I have to believe
they would be intrigued by the prospect of adding a young lefty
starter to go behind Brandon Webb. I think Arizona would also be
interested in Jake Westbrook but think Sowers may have more
value to them at this time. He put up some nice numbers last
year and is young - translation - cheap, for years to come. I
think Sowers is overrated and has the upside of a middle type of
starter. So I would take advantage of "sell high" here.
On the surface, the return Cleveland receives could be seen as
confusing given they have Ryan Garko at 1B and Josh Barfield at
2B. It will become clearer after I enter the other trades I
would consider.
Carlos Gonzalez is a better prospect than either Callaspo or
Carter, which is why he has to be in the deal. The latter
two I think will be very good hitting wise at their positions
but maybe not elite. Gonzalez would replace Brad Snyder in the
Indian's farm system with a truly elite OF prospect. Snyder has
had his problems the last couple of years but still is
considered a good prospect.
Chris Carter is in no man's land having Conor Jackson ahead of
him. And nobody (prospect gurus and publications) seems to value
him that highly. I do. I think he will be a better hitter than
Garko, although I would be happy sticking with Garko too. I
think Carter is Jason Giambi pre steroids - high average, great
OBP, and decent power given the position - 20+ HR power.
Alberto Callaspo is an on base machine (.404 at AAA last year).
I like him A LOT better than Josh Barfield. As I said in another
posting, Shapiro should have gotten part of the bullpen problems
addressed in the Kouzmanoff trade by getting Scott Linebrink
instead of a questionable stick - mediocre defensive player.
Trade #2
To Oakland: Ryan Garko (1B/DH), Rafael Betancourt (RP), & Jeremy
Guthrie (SP)
To Cleveland: Justin Duchscherer (RP) & Daric Barton (1B)
This is why Chris Carter is acquired in the first trade, to be
the 1st baseman instead of Garko. I think Billy Beane covets
Garko and would have even before Oakland did not re-sign Frank
Thomas. Garko is a high OB player and would play 1B/DH for them.
Nick Swisher would play the OF. This also allows Beane maximum
flexibility in acquiring another good DH or OF to help their
offense.
Oakland already has their long term closer in Huston Street and
a very strong bullpen. Given Beane's history, he'll still want
something in the form of replacement though for Duchscherer.
That would mean Rafael Betancourt. Jeremy Guthrie is thrown in
here. The A's liked him at the time he was drafted and have to
feel like they are pretty good at developing pitching and may
get him straightened out yet.
The Indians have already signalled they are throwing up their
hands on Guthrie by the fact he got zero time last September.
Even Brian Slocum (wasn't even on the radar) got time in his
place. So you might as well use him to sweeten a deal if you can
do it than release him for nothing at the beginning of the year.
Justin Duchscherer would be Cleveland's new closer. I would say
right now that he has a better chance than all of the
experienced free agent closers to be succesful at that role.
Daric Barton is a premier blue chip hitting prospect at 1st
base. He is not ready yet, but could be very close, which is
saying something for a 21 year old. He was off to a blazing
start at AAA last year before a freak collision at first base
effectively ended his season with a broken elbow. He is healed
and playing in the Hawaiian Winter League as of now. Barton is
another with extremely good plate discipline - don't think I've
seen anything like his numbers in somebody so young. There is a
question by the gurus if he will hit for enough power at 1st
base, but I think he's got 20 HR power easy right now and you'd
think it would be higher by the time he's in his mid 20's. There
really isn't a need for him with Chris Carter at 1B, but if he
doesn't beat him outright eventually he is one heck of a trading
chip down the road.
After this trade, I would dip into free agency for a couple of
7th/8th inning relievers. Chad Bradford - RH & Steve Kline - LH.
A combination of Bradford, Fernando Cabrera, Matt Miller, & Tom
Mastny should be a big enough of pile of quality arms/experience
to choose from to get an able replacement for Betancourt. Rafael
Betancourt could never pitch in back to back games anyway and
still be effective. I am also leary of players with a known
performance enhanced history. I think you are rolling the dice,
not knowing if you are going to get a great year or an
ineffective or injury plagued one from these types of players.
Kline can be the lefty specialist out of the pen.
I would be okay with this bullpen to start 2007:
closer - Justin Duchscherer
7th/8th - Bradford, Miller, Cabrera
long or 6th - Mastny & Mujica
lefty - Kline and maybe Tony Sipp when he's ready
This allows the Indian's best relief prospects (imo) Edward
Mujica & Tony Sipp time to work their way into a big league job
instead of being rushed.
Trade #3
To New York (AL): Jake Westbrook (SP), Casey Blake (OF/1B), &
Kelly Shoppach (C)
To Cleveland: Philip Hughes (SP) & Jose Tabata (OF)
This will really get everyone screaming, on both sides even.
Everyone in Cleveland will be saying; what the hell, more
prospects and giving up our starters? In New York, they would be
saying; what the hell, our two untouchable prospects?
Makes sense for both teams though.
Let's look at it from NY's perspective first:
Even with the addition of Humberto Sanchez the Yankees need
starting pitching. They would LOVE to get their hands on a good
middle type of dependable starter with the an ERA around 4. Look
at their rotation by adding Westbrook:
Randy Johnson
Mike Mussina
Chien-Min Wang
Humberto Sanchez
Jake Westbrook
Westbrook makes that staff injury proof. They could still win
that division even without Johnson being healthy and productive.
Jorge Posada is 35 years old. Kelly Shoppach could start for a
lot of teams and even though he has a questionable bat, the
Yankees could afford to carry a good defense weak stick more
than most teams. At the very least, he is a great backup to
Posada.
Casey Blake is a fourth OF type imo. I admit I can't stand him
starting for the Indians any more but he would be very valuable
to the Yankees in that Giambi could DH and probably stay
healthier with Blake playing part time at 1st base. He can also
play LF, RF, & 3B in a pinch. He surely beats the alternative of
Andy Phillips.
Let's face it, there is really no such thing as a prospect in
the Yankees system. If they accidentally develop them they are
trade fodder. The Yanks will always take the sure thing current
Major Leaguer over the question mark prospect. Wetsbrook is at
worst a MOR starter and young enough he should have another good
5 years left. The Yankees can also afford to pay him when he
hits free agency after next year.
On the Indian's side, that last point is why Westbrook has to be
traded. He has told the Indians he wants to test the market,
which is code for: he's going to the highest bidder. You can
either get something for him now and watch him play in Yankee
Stadium next year or wait a year and watch them buy him in free
agency.
Philip Hughes is probably in the top three of pitching prospect
in the minors at this time. He's every bit as highly though of
as Adam Miller and either of these two could even possibly get
to the majors in 2007. At the least, one or both will be
knocking on the door in 2008.
Jose Tabata is an extreme tools young OF that had no problems as
a 17 year old in A ball last year. He's a diamond to add at the
lower levels, something the Indians should try and do with most
of their trades given this owner's fear of parting with money.
This trade probably does nothing for the Indians in 2007 and
obviously weakens the starting staff even more. More on that in
the final trade of the offseason.
Trade #4
To Boston: Trevor Crowe, Josh Barfield 2B, & Asdrubal Cabrera SS
***If I had to, I would go even higher and add Chuck Lofgren
(SP) to the package.
To Cleveland: Manny Ramirez (LF), with Cleveland paying all of
Manny's salary.
Even given Boston's high dollar market, they've got to be
looking to cut some money somewhere given what they are paying
for Matsuzaka and probably JD Drew. It will get worse if they
have to spend big on a closer like Joe Borowski in free agency.
Drew will at least make up for some of Manny's production.
Boston needs a SS. Asdrubal Cabrera is probably not the answer
they have in mind as of yet, but he would at least give them
great defense there if they had to play him this year. Even
better, they let him develop in the minors and move Pedroia over
to SS for 2007 and plug Josh Barfield into second. Not a bad
looking middle infield. The rest of their offense is good enough
to carry these two and that is if both fall on their faces
offensively.
Trevor Crowe may or may not be ready for a Major League job in
2007 but it is just a small matter of time before he is. Now
that the Indians rightfully quit screwing around with a position
change, he can concentrate on continuing to develop his
considerable leadoff and OB skills. Boston is not happy with
Crisp in CF and it would be a matter of time before Crowe would
beat him out there. Or, he could play left field.
***Giving up Lofgren really hurts here but Crowe, Cabrera &
Barfield may not make up a good enough package to get someone of
the stature of Manny Ramirez, even paying all of the $20
million/year. So if Boston wants at least two big time
prospects, the lefty Lofgren and Crowe are it.
On Boston's side they do not have a lot of good choices in
addressing their middle infield this year. Their most tradeable
commodity, both in value and one they are willing to give up
(Ramirez) also has control over where they send him. He can veto
trades. I imagine Cleveland is one of the few places he will
agree to go to. Cleveland doesn't have the bullpen arms they
would be interested in but they do have some good young middle
infielders, though one is too young to really make any impact
next year.
So if they want Ramirez they have to help Boston address a need
on the big league club (infield) and give something substantial
up to pry Manny away. Crowe might be enough, but again, given
what Ramirez is capable of and the Indians real problems with
the fan base this year - they have to contend, they might want
more. Ramirez would jump start the excitement meter. He'll not
only sell tickets but turn this offense into an elite one.
Ramirez can then keep left field warm for 2-3 years until some
of the younger outfielders like Gonzalez (Carlos), Choo,
Gutierrez, etc. work it out amongst themselves who will be his
eventual replacement.
So here is
what is left of the Cleveland Indians after these trade
suggestions.
Lineup - grade A
Sizemore
Callaspo
Hafner
Ramirez
Martinez
Choo/Gutierrez
Peralta
Carter
Marte
The last four can be mixed/matched depending on how they are
doing and the opposing pitching matchups. I would grade this
lineup an A with not much chance it will drop below that level
in 2007 unless hit with major injuries.
Starting Rotation - Grade C
Sabathia
Byrd
Lee
Carmona
Jason Davis
Brian Slocum/Adam Miller/Philip Hughes
This rotation is a crap shoot. It could be very good or very
bad. And it could be very good even if Byrd/Lee have bad years.
All it would take is Carmona/Miller/Hughes coming in and putting
up a year like Verlander did in Detroit last year, which is very
possible.
I have a hard time believing that the Indians can't find a good
yearly performance out of one of these pitchers listed here
behind Sabathia. My hunch is Lee & Carmona will put up better
than expected years. Jason Davis will surprise people by not
completely sucking in the 5th spot - a definite upgrade over
Jason Johnson.
I would grade this starting rotation a C but it would now be the
most risky part of the team - for the short term. In 2007 it
could completely fail and turn into an F or go the other way and
be an A. In 2008 and beyond it will be the strength of the team
and have three legit FOR starters in the first three spots of
the rotation.
The interesting thing here is that I believe the grade would be
the same for 2007 with Westbrook & Sowers still in the rotation.
Sowers could look great or the league could adjust to him and he
struggles around a 5 or so ERA. Westbrook is not a FOR starter
so depending on the year he can fluctuate between the low fours
to high fours.
The Bullpen - Grade B
closer: Justin Duchscherer
setup: Bradford, Miller, Cabrera
lefty: Kline
youngsters, 6th/7th: Mujica, Sipp
This bullpen should be good enough protection for any 5 inning
starts that may happen in 2007. I'd give it a B grade with
little risk it dropping below that level unless the closer goes
down, which is a risk in any year.
Given the Hafner/Ramirez powered offense, the team is built more
along the lines of the Yankees - to succeed over a long season
against primarily mediocre pitching. The offense should be good
enough to overcome possible shakiness from the 4th and 5th
starters. The question will be can it overcome that type of
performance from the 2nd & 3rd spots. More times than not I
think it can. Not a lot of staffs in MLB that have true #2 types
after an ace #1.
What has been added to the farm system:
Two blue chip OF prospects
One blue chip 1B prospect
1 blue chip starting pitching prospect
Callaspo & Carter are an immediate slight upgrade over Garko/Barfield
with the differential being widened as the years go on.
The Money
As far as the money goes, the player salaries, even with
Ramirez, should still fit the Dolans' budget. They will lose
Westbrook and Blake's salaries too.
I've read this offseason that the Indians are getting $40
million alone just from Time Warner in the STO deal. That is
roughly 2 1/2 times what they were getting just a year ago from
Sportschannel. And that doesn't take into account what they are
getting from the other cable providers and satellite companies.
Even with somewhat depressed attendance of around 2 million they
should be able to afford a 70-80 million dollar payroll right
now. What this means is that even if they don't want to trust
all of this young pitching they could still afford to go out and
overpay for a veteran like Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito to
bolster the starting rotation. I'd prefer they didn't and put
that money into long term for Sabathia & Hafner as I could live
with not contending for another year it it sets up the near
future so well.
Either way, Mark Shapiro has preached payroll flexibility for
years and he is in the catbird seat now in that respect. He has
a great opportunity to be very creative this offseason. I am
going to be seriously pissed and counting the days until his
replacement takes over if he sits on his hands again and makes a
couple of faint stabs at mediocre players towards the end of the
offseason.
As of today, this team in this division is not built to compete,
primarily because the starting pitching, while good, is mediocre
and not good enough to overcome a bad bullpen and inconsistent
offense. Yes, they are shaky defensively too. The bullpen must
be addressed in a meaningful way and it will take at least one
trade to do it.
The starting pitching is an area that should always be looked
upon to improve with the goal being FOR starters throughout. If
that means you give up some parts for high end starting
prospects you do it. If the Indians had an owner that had no
problems spending big money then they could it the Boston or New
York way. But they don't. They are left to try and acquire and
develop their own good pitching. This means auctioning off
replaceable parts to the highest bidder to help in acquiring
them. Take the heat for it now and it will pay off down the
road. Shapiro did a similar thing last year when he traded Crisp
for Marte.
I am not a fan of keeping with the status quo just because the
starters are innings eaters. This rarely gets a team anywhere.
If you doubt this, look at where high end pitching got the
Tigers and Twins in 2006. The only teams I've seen be able to
get anywhere with mediocre starters are offense rich teams like
the Red Sox & Yankees, teams that can bludgeon their way through
a long season.
In summary for 2007, the starting rotation would be weakened,
the bullpen would be greatly strengthened, and the offense would
also be greatly strenghtened. Even if the rotation ends up being
the achilles heel to competing in 2007, one more year of
development of the farm players and what has been added to that
will start paying dividends in 2008. One thing is for sure; this
team would be very entertaining. The offense alone will be worth
the price of admission to games. And I for one love watching
good young pitchers start their major league careers, even with
the growing pains.
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