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Cleveland
Indians Prospect List
11-26-2006
There will
be two lists, one for hitters and one for pitchers. Defense, for
the most part, is not a factor for the hitters. Each list will
not be a strict top 10, 20, etc.. Hitters and pitchers are
judged on the goal of becoming full time average or above
contributors at the ML level.
Hitters
The
criteria for the Indian's hitting prospect list is loosely based
on the following:
Less than
150 at bats in MLB
Hitters
are judged on OBP (on base %), power - extra base hits, and
plate discipline.
The age of
the hitter in relation to minor league level (A, AA, AAA) is a
factor.
Hitters at
premium positions get a little extra credit, but if they do not
qualify otherwise as a good hitting prospect, they won't make
the list.
1)
Franklin Gutierrez OF - 23 years old. Gutierrez is coming
off a nice season at Buffalo: .278, .373, .433 (AVG, OB, SLG). Looking into his
numbers more shows the following: 49/84 BB/SO and 49/349 BB/AB.
These are above average plate discipline numbers and given the
history of him completely revamping his swing and approach very
promising. His SLG (.433) is deceptively low as 36 of his 97
hits went for extra bases. The park (Buffalo) and league
(International) he plays in is also a factor that would serve
to dampen his production. Gutierrez is age and level appropriate
for a top prospect. His grown up ML numbers? .290, 20+HR, 40
doubles and an OPS in the .850+ range. He is one of the few
hitting prospects where his defensive skills count for extra, as
he can play any outfield position and has the ability to reach
Gold Glove level. If the Indians didn't already have Grady
Sizemore in CF he'd make an ideal candidate.
2)
Trevor Crowe OF - 23 years old. Starting at #2 on this list,
the hitters listed are a little less than sure things. The
Indians have acquired and/or promoted some top hitters over the
last few years who no longer qualify and so a lot of what is
left is just getting to AA. Trevor Crowe is one of them. He had
a great year in high A Kinston: .329, .449, .470 followed by
some struggling in AA Akron: .234, .318, .325. He also had some
injury problems and the Indians were experimenting with him at
second base in Akron, which may explain the dropoff in
production there. Doesn't matter though because Crowe
maintained what is going to make him or break him in the majors
- great plate discipline. At Kinston: 48/46 BB/K & 48/219 BB/at
bats. At Akron: 20/24 BB/SO & 20/154 BB/at bats. Crowe's skills
project out to the ideal leadoff type combining good contact
skills and patience leading to an excellent on base type of
hitter, along with some good speed. I'm not sold on talk of him
developing good power. If you look at Gutierrez' extra base
numbers and compare them to Crowe in Kinston (21/72 extra base
hits/hits), it is a good example of how SLG is sometimes not that
accurate a representation of power. But Crowe doesn't need power
to be very valuable to the Indians. It's too bad he wasn't a
little more advanced as I am sure the Indians would love to plug
him in the leadoff spot and have Sizemore move down. Crowe is
age appropriate for the level but he needs to finish off AA and
have a decent year in AAA to stay on track.
3) John
Drennen OF - 20 years old. Drennen makes it high on this
list mainly because he is just out of high school and had a
great year at low A Lake County: .321, .409, .471. This is
another case where the SLG is a little higher than what he
really did extra base wise - 21/77 extra bases to total hits.
But the plate discipline was there: 31/52 BB/SO & 31/240 BB/at
bats. Although he struggled in his short time in high A Kinston
- .239, .328, .327, he maintained the patience, similar to Crowe
in Akron. I don't put a lot of weight on fluctuations in batting
average, especially given the small sample sizes. As of now,
Drennen's power potential is borderline so it is questionable as
to if it will develop further. That is common though for such a
young player. That will become more clear once he
gets to and masters AA.
4) Jose
Constanza OF - 23 years old. The switch hitting Constanza is
an undrafted player from the Dominican Republic, which is why
you will see a high college draft pick like Trevor Crowe get a
lot of attention and Jose get very little. But he put up almost
the exact same year on the same team (high A Kinston) as Crowe:
.327, .419, .436. While he started the year at low A Lake
County, the bulk of his year was at the higher level Kinston. He
shows similar plate discipline to Crowe and might be a little
faster - 20/4 SB/CS. He's a small guy - 5'9" so maybe that's why
a lot of scouts don't think much of him. Can't argue with his
performance though.
The above
four prospects are the only ones I'd say have a good chance of
being MLB regulars at some point. The Indians, with the recent
promotions and playing of players like Shin-Soo Choo, Ryan Garko,
and Andy Marte do not have a lot of real positional prospects in
the higher levels right now. So here are a few honorable
mentions but each of these players have some issue - usually
their age being considered too old for a real prospect given the
level, that holds them back from being considered top
prospects. The numbers to the left of their names are not
meaningful in that they are all really in the same category of
the next step down from those above.
5)
Brian Barton OF - 24 years old. Barton had a great combined
high A/AA year. This included a .925 OPS at Kinston, followed by
a .918 at AA Akron in 151 at bats. The .503 SLG at Akron is
skewed by an abnormal batting average - .351. Barton had only 11 of
his 53 hits there go for extra bases. He could still attain top
prospect status but it will take a very strong year at AA/AAA
combined in 2007 since he will be 25 next April.
6)
Wyatt Toregas C - 23 years old (24 in December-2006).
Toregas had a great high A year in Kinston - .336, .418, .514
(BA/OB/SLG). The SLG there was legitimate as 37% of his hits
went for extra bases. The OBP also looks sound with the 20/28
BB/SO and 20/146 BB/at bats. He was promoted to AA Akron where
his numbers fell off (.258/.319/.393) but still maintained
decent plate discipline and power numbers. Toregas almost made
the top hitter list but we will need to see more from him in
2007. He is one that gets a little extra credit because, by all
reports, he is good defensively at a premium (catcher) position.
His age/level is borderline but catchers often take longer to
develop. If he was an outfielder he'd be in a similar boat as
Brian Barton in that respect.
7)
Asdrubal Cabrera SS - 21 years old. Cabrera was acquired in
the trade with Seatlle involving Eduardo Perez. He is
a great defensive shortstop with a questionable bat. And his bat
is even harder to judge because he's probably at a level or two
higher than he should be. Seattle tried pushing all of their top
prospects last year and put Asdrubal in AAA where he did well at
first and then struggled mightily - .236/.323/.360. Once
Cleveland acquired him they assigned him to AAA Buffalo:
.263/.295/.337. While he showed decent plate discipline in the
Mariner's organization - 24/51 BB/SO, in Buffalo he regressed -
8/39 BB/SO. Cabrera does have a decent history in the lower
minors in that respect, so the hope is that it will eventually
catch up at the higher levels. I've seen him play and he's a
flashy defensive player with a good arm. People that have never
seen him might think he's more of the smallish Vizquel type of
player but he's bigger than him. He could probably play anywhere
on the field, such is his defensive potential. His
hitting performance this year can't be ignored though, and so
this will be an important year for him to see if he can get back
on track with what his A ball performances implied.
8) Ryan
Goleski OF - 24 years old. Goleski is in the bottom of this
list solely because of his age. It is not normal for top
prospects to be 24 and just finishing AA. His AA year at Akron
though was great: .296/.370/.528, including 17 HR and 24 doubles
in 96 hits. That's a legitimate SLG and done in a league
(Eastern) with some good pitching. If Goleski can follow up this
year with another similarly strong one in AAA he's got a great
shot at being a legit bat at the ML level. The Indians didn't
protect him from the Rule V draft so there's a chance another
team snags him.
9)
Jordan Brown OF - 22 years old (23 in December).
.290/.362/.469 AVG/OB/SLG. This included 15 HR, 7 triples, & 26
doubles in 137 hits. Plate discipline: 51/59 BB/SO & 51/473
BB/at bats. These are some very nice looking numbers and if
Brown was a year younger he might have been considered in the
top four on this list. But he's got that and the fact he's yet
to play in AA as question marks. He's more of a sleeper that
could blossom type of prospect right now but so far, very good.
Another
note of caution: Most (6) of the top hitting prospects on this
list were based primarily on their numbers at high A Kinston.
You can't really tell either way, but it does look like a little
trend that hitters there didn't have many problems with that
league. As always, prospects are not really potentially viable
ML players until they prove it at AA.
Pitchers
Pitchers
will have similar criteria to the hitters. But their peripherals
that count will be based on things like: K/IP (strikeouts to
innings pitched), BB/K (walks to strikeouts), H/IP (hits to
innings
pitched). The same rules apply as far as age to minor league
level.
1) Adam
Miller RH SP - Just turned 22 years old. Much has
been written about Miller going back to his A ball performances
because he was just dominating. He had averaged more K/IP, less
H/IP and kept his BB/K at 1:3 or better at low A Lake Country
and high A Kinston. Then he got hurt in spring training 2005,
had a lot of down time, and ended up pitching 59 mediocre
innings after coming back. There were definite questions, such
as, was this just a delay until he ended up with an inevitable
surgery, would he get his good (95) fastball back - slider,
etc.. So 2006 was the test at AA Akron and he far exceeded
anyone's most optimistic expectations: 157/153 K/IP, 43/157
BB/K, 129/153 H/IP. Those are dominating numbers and he played
the year as a 21 year old in AA - easily an appropriate
age/level for a top prospect. The scary potential thing is that
he basically lost a year in 2005 and you could look at his AA
season as a 20 year old. It also says a lot about his mental
makeup that he could overcome such a injury scare so soon. If
the hitter and pitching lists were combined, Adam Miller would
be the no doubt #1. He's the best starting prospect the Indians
have had in decades. I'd rate him slightly higher than CC
Sabathia at a similar time in his career and nobody else would
be that close. Grown up major leaguer? Ace of the staff.
2)
Edward Mujica RH RP - 22 years old. It is not often that
there will be relief prospects on these lists but in the case
where the potential is a closer they will be listed. Mujica has
been
above or slightly below a 1:1 K/IP ratio throughout his
minor league career. His worst year so far was in AAA Buffalo:
29/32 K/IP, 31/32 H/IP, 5/29 BB/K. That last number is what
really stands out for Mujica and it is something he has shown
throughout the minors. Not only does it show he has very good
control to go along with a good (velocity - low to mid 90s)
fastball, but that in combination with the good H/IP number is a
sign of good command. He will need more time to develop as what
I saw of him in the cup of coffee with the Indians last year was
a pitcher that got away with some mediocre command and he'll
have to improve on that. There is nothing in his minor league
record to indicate he can't. In fact, expect the opposite.
ML upside: closer, downside: good setup man.
These next
two have seen no AA time yet.
3) Chuck
Lofgren LH SP - 20 years old. Spent the entire year at high
A Kinston: 125/139 K/IP, 108/139 H/IP, 54/125 BB/K. He's left
handed, young for the level, and averaged almost a K per IP.
Lofgren also is concentrating solely on his pitching now,
whereas coming out of high school, there was talk he could be an
even better hitter than pitcher. His 2005 year in low A Lake
County was a similarly good one. The make or break level is
coming for him as he's likely to start the year at AA Akron.
4) Scott
Lewis LH SP - 23 years old. Lofgren's teammate at
Kinston put up an even better year: 123/115 K/IP, 84/115 H/IP,
28/123 BB/K. It is mitigated somewhat by the fact he was on a
strict pitch count and often would be pulled after five innings
due to some injury worries. Lewis has some serious question
marks about him because of this history and it will bear
watching as to if he can start extending himself in games, along
with continuing his sparkling performance in the tough Eastern
League in AA. Those numbers will play anywhere, so it's a
possibility that Lewis ends up being a back end of bullpen
pitcher if his health precludes extended innings..
Honorables:
Tony Sipp (23) LH RP, J.D. Martin (23) RH SP.
*Note: Andy Marte,
Ryan Garko, Shin-Soo Choo, and Fausto Carmona just barely had
enough ML service time to be disqualified from this list. Just
for fun, Carmona would have been rated second behind Adam Miller
amongst the pitchers. Marte, Garko & Choo would have been #1,
#2, & #3 respectively amongst the hitters. Joe Inglett & Jeremy
Guthrie would not have made the list.
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