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Indian's Hot
Stove v other MLB teams
by CSF
Staff
12-07-2006
So with the Winter Meeting about
to end, here is what the Indians picked up:
David Dellucci (33) - LF -
a platoon hitter that can't hit LHP, although it remains to be
seen how the Indians will play him.
Positives: He has to be better
than Jason Michaels against RHP: career .827 OPS. The
interesting thing about that number is that most of it comes
from his SLG.
Possible issues: The SLG referred
to above may not be something to count on. Out of Dellucci's
2,294 at bats, 1,030 have come in band box type of parks - Texas
& Philadelphia. Not surprisingly, he put up SLG numbers ranging
from .441-.530 during these years.
Switching back to the American
League at this time will run him straight into much better
pitching. The fact teams play unbalanced schedules with 1/3 of
their games against division opponents means he will be facing a
lot of the best pitching in MLB in the tough Central.
His career batting average is
.271 with an OBP of .359 against RHP. Still, even though this is
his strong area (BA RHP), he has a tendency to pile up the
strikeouts - roughly 1 for every 4 at bats. Over a 400 at bat
(against RHP) season, this is the equivalent of 100 strikeouts.
The best shot the Indians have of
getting value from him is to use him in a strict platoon.
Dellucci should never face LHP: he has a career .587 OPS against
them, .208/.272/.315. If the Indians give him 100 at bats
against LHP you can add another 30+ strikeouts to his total.
Then there is the whole trying
out a 33 year old career bench player in a full time role thing.
The Indians attempted something similar with Michaels last year
and appear to want to try it again.
Robert Hernandez (42) -
RHRP - Hernandez is not a closer anymore but has had a nice ML
career.
Positives: He has been about as
consistent as Rafael Betancourt. He's not been overused the last
couple of years - never going over 70 IP.
Potential issues: he's played in
a pitcher's park in an easier league (NL) the last few years, LH
hitters hit .290 against him last year, and his advanced age is
a major risk.
Aaron Fultz (33) - LHRP -
Fultz has had one good year out of the last 7 in the bullpen.
Positives: The Indians are in
need of a lefty out of the pen.
Issues: Fultz is the situational
type lefty that should ideally only face LH hitters (.240 BAA).
He's had one year out of the last seven with an ERA under four,
including a couple above five. Scott Sauerbeck has a better
track record.
Joe Borowski (35) - RHRP -
Borowski is a closer candidate for the Indians. He had 36 saves
for Florida in 2006.
Positives: Borowski has closing
experience and has accomplished 30+ saves twice in his ML
career.
Issues: He's had injury problems
that cost him major time in 2004 & 2005. In fact, he failed his
physical when Philadelphia was about to give him a multi year
deal this winter, hence the reason the Indians could get him on
a one year deal.
He's going to a tougher league
from the NL. His career ERA is 3.87. As a comparison, Bob
Wickman's was 3.57 with a much better recent track record.
His advanced age, especially
combined with his injury history and recent failed physical
(shoulder), is a major risk.
Note that all of the acquisitions
by the Indians were free agent pickups and older players. This
is interesting because at the start of the off season it was a
known fact that there was not much, in terms of quality,
available in the pitching realm. It was almost a given that for
the Indians to significantly upgrade their large bullpen
problems, it would take one or more trades, yet there have been
none. Another pattern that sticks out is the emphasis on older
(practically over the hill in MLB terms) players. The only
conclusion to be gained from this is that either the Indians
have an irrational fear of young talent now or do not want to
give up anything in a trade.
So let's look at what a couple of
other teams did. Atlanta, who traded for Wickman last year,
re-signed him after a great campaign with them. This move they
just made to improve their bullpen even more with a young
quality arm is the reason good teams get better. They traded
Horacio Ramirez (27) - LH starter for Rafael Soriano (27) - RH
RP. Both players have had their share of injuries so the risk is
about the same to both teams. The difference though is that
Ramirez is, at best, a middle of the pack starter and Soriano a
possible shut down closer.
Soriano was a great candidate as
a potential trade target for the Indians. He was one of maybe a
handful of relievers currently in a setup role that had the
potential of stepping right into a closing situation and I would
take him over any of the Indian's free agent pickups any day.
The equivalent cost for the Indians would have been someone like
Jason Davis and possibly one of the young bullpen arms they no
longer have room for. Or, they could have traded Paul Byrd to
Seattle and moved Davis into Byrd's spot in the rotation. He
can't be worse than what Byrd did in 2006.
The White Sox just sent Freddy
Garcia (30) - RH SP to the Phillies for two young starters -
Gavin Floyd (23) & Gio Gonzalez (21). Both of these young
pitchers are ex 1st round draft picks. The most interesting
thing here is not just what Chicago got back - which was a good
deal, but why they made the deal in the first place - to free up
a spot for Brandon McCarthy to move back out of the bullpen.
So the White Sox this off season
added a good young starter (McCarthy) who was already in their
system, added two very good young pitching prospects, and the
cost was the equivalent of a mid rotation starter. In the
process, they also gained another $8 million in freed up salary.
Someone from the Indians needs to
explain why the Indians couldn't have done the same. They could
have moved Fausto Carmona to their rotation and moved Jake
Westbrook or Paul Byrd in a similar trade. Westbrook has more
trade value than Garcia, given that he is a year younger,
cheaper this year, and had a better 2006. If they don't want to
trade for prospects, does anyone think they couldn't have gotten
Gary Sheffield for Westbrook? Or, how about using him to
facilitate a package for Manny Ramirez?
Just using the Braves and White
Sox trades as examples, if the Indians had followed the same
philosophy, we could be looking at Sheffield or Ramirez in left
field instead of David Dellucci. And considering the moves it
would take, you can knock off about $7 million of Ramirez'
salary by not acquiring Dellucci and trading Westbrook in the
process. You could subtract another $1 million off of that by
letting Jason Michaels go, since there would no longer be a need
to platoon one of those outfield options.
The piece(s) it would take to
have gained a Rafael Soriano, who is better than any of the
relief pitchers the Indians have acquired this winter, were not
going to be used anyway. Jason Davis really doesn't have a spot
on this team now with all of the relief additions. If they had
used Byrd instead of Davis to acquire Soriano, it's even better,
because Cleveland could have subtracted most if not all of
Byrd's $7 million salary.
The end result would have been a
better closer candidate and Manny Ramirez in left field, adding
only about $5 million to the payroll for 2006. Sheffield would
have been even less.
And they didn't have to do major
damage to the top of their farm system. Adam Miller would still
be there. At most, it would have taken possibly a Chuck Lofgren
or Trevor Crowe to make the Ramirez deal go, and I think it is
just as possible that wouldn't have been necessary. I think if
the Indians would have offered Westbrook to the Yankees they
would have taken him straight up for Sheffield, might have sent
something extra back even.
If the Red Sox didn't want
Westbrook for Ramirez but did want a front end type of pitching
prospect included the Indians could have found at least one team
that would have been willing. I could see a team like Baltimore
giving up Hayden Penn for Westbrook and one of these extra
outfield prospects the Indians don't seem as interested in now.
I could see a team like Texas giving up John Danks and more for
the same. Or, they could have gotten their closer Otsuka and
flipped him to Boston, who really need a closer candidate
themselves.
Mark Shapiro has preached the
flexibility mantra for years now. He wants the organization to
have the flexibility in both players and money to be able to go
out and get what is needed when the time was right. I guess you
got to watch what people do instead of what they say. Because he
had it all - every option possible, laying right out in front of
him this winter and struck out. Yes, there is a possibility he
might get by and luck out by throwing sheer numbers at the
problems. But he could have accomplished something much greater
this off season and didn't. The really bad part of it all? Most
of the pieces it would have taken to improve this team in a
significant way probably won't be with the Indians after 2007
anyway.
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