I’m just following up on the trade suggestion here of using Kelly Shoppach as trade bait.

Given the fact that Boston will probably non tender Kevin Cash and already struck out offering Varitek arbitration, they will be shopping for a catcher.

It was reported this morning that Texas is dangling theirs, hoping to separate Boston from some of it’s pitching. After trading Laird to Detroit, that leaves Saltalamacchia & Teagarden.

There is speculation that Texas would want RH Masterson & LH Buchholz but there is no way Boston is giving both of them up.

I don’t see why the Indians wouldn’t want to get in on this given the fact Shoppach is a luxury for them and as of today, better than either of the two in Texas.

If Boston signs Teixeira that will change the makeup of their infield too with Tex moving to 1B and probably Youkilis moving to 3B.

This means SS/3B Jed Lowrie could become available. Boston might be willing to let go one of Buchholz/Masterson and Lowrie. While two of these are very good prospects and are major league ready, neither have proven anything in the big leagues yet.

Given the concern I have about the Indians rotation in 2009, I’d trade Shoppach straight up for either of these two. Shoppach should have a lot of trade value when it comes to Boston.

And if the Indians sign Kerry Wood they are not going to to be able to afford upgrading their starting pitching (their most glaring need). It would have to come in a trade.

I’d feel a lot better about the Tribe’s chances in 2009 adding another quality ML ready starter to the mix.

There’s a rumor that the Washington Nationals are trying to get either Willy Taveras or Carlos Gonzalez from the Rockies to play center field.

If they would complete this type of deal that would leave them with too many outfielders for two corner spots. They’d have: Josh Willingham, Wily Mo Pena (platoon), Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, & Elijah Dukes - all right handed hitters too.

Willingham was just traded for by them. Kearns is healthy now. Milledge is probably the only other guy that can play CF at times.

Which leaves Elijah Dukes.

The Indians have two set OF positions with Sizemore in CF and Choo in one of the corner spots. The candidates that are left to fill the other OF position are question marks, with the most valuable being Franklin Gutierrez.

Whether Gutierrez develops yet into a full time OF is still up in the air. His defensive ability at any OF position, particularly his ability to play CF is clearly superior to anything else the Indians have.

So the trade suggestion would be this:

Cleveland gets: OF Elijah Dukes & prospect

Washington gets: C Kelly Shoppach

Before anyone goes crazy, think about how Shoppach will be wasted here in 2009. There is just no way, going into spring training with a healthy Victor Martinez and Ryan Garko, that he will be anything other than a bench player again. And btw, Victor Martinez is a better defensive catcher than Shoppach.

Make Gutierrez, Dukes, and who knows - maybe even Trevor Crowe, battle it out for the remaining OF spot. The worst case scenario of having Gutierrez as 4th OF is appealing.

Then pay whatever it takes to kick Dellucci to the curb and trade Francisco.

Another thing to keep in mind is the potential first baseman in the Indians minor leagues that are coming, LaPorta and Mills. Also, Carlos Santana is the heir apparent to Victor Martinez.

The Indians will not be paying big money for an OF this offseason. This is true really of any of the offensive positions they would be interested in - 3B, possibly DH with Hafner a question mark. What’s more difficult to obtain - 3B or OF?

They should not push it, thinking they have to get a 3B, 2B/move everybody over type of thing. Let Marte & Carroll stay there and be the one offensive hole on the team at worst. Improve the OF offense so there are not two holes.

And hold onto what pitching they have. They are going to need it.

Trading good pitching

What?

Rafael Perez - a proven 26 year old lefty who is under the Indians control for the foreseeable future and one of their more consistent pitchers on the staff.

Has anyone noticed that the bullpen had issues this year? The last thing I want to do is trade away the strength of a struggling critical part of the team. I’m not saying Perez or anyone is untouchable, but he shouldn’t be going in a deal unless as part of a package with a real difference maker to the team coming back.

After deciding Sabathia wasn’t worth the money, the Indians have no business trading away top young pitching talent. It is crystal clear now that not only will they never compete in the free agent market for one, they won’t even retain their home grown ace types that win Cy Young awards.

Cliff Lee is next. If he has just an average to good year next year, he will join Sabathia on a wealthier team after 2009.

Which brings me to the question; what do the Indians need more in 2009, offense or pitching?

Given that after Lee in the rotation the only sure thing is Fausto Carmona coming off an injury year, I’d say pitching. Will Westbrook even be back? The Indians need starting pitching to have a chance in 2009 and probably could use another good bullpen arm.

The starting pitching for the Indians is a mess at this point and going into 2009, a huge question mark. In fact, how can this team be expected to contend for a playoff spot with this staff?

Now that I think more about it, the shrewdest strategy going into 2009 would be for the Indians to retool and get ready for 2010. There are many reasons for this:

The Lee situation and shaky starting staff. The Indians need to find out what they have in Carmona & Westbrook over the next year. 2009 is really an evaluation year for them. Neither can be expected to be significant contributors yet.

The Travis Hafner situation because they really won’t know what they have in him until after 2009. I just read that he is thinking surgery now. So not only will the Indians be missing a huge bat in their lineup again, they have no idea what Hafner will be for them until 2010 probably.

Other question marks for the Indians: one OF position with Francisco & Gutierrez, Garko at 1B, and Marte at 3B.

So if the Indians accept the reality that based on their starting pitching alone, they really don’t have much chance next year, the best strategy would be to use this offseason and 2009 to get ready for 2010. 2009 would be an evaluation year for the players listed above.

And if the Indians start planning for 2010 now, they should actually have the following players on the market this offseason:

Cliff Lee - you know how it’s going to end. He’s gone after 2009. Get something good for him this winter. They can get even better value by the acquiring team getting him for a full year. No sense in watching him anchor a weak starting staff on a non playoff team and then bolt after the season.

Josh Barfield at this point has no value to the Indians and can be had.

Kelly Shoppach - sell high. He is not going to supplant Victor Martinez at catcher. And the reason why is that Martinez will not be moving to 1B for the Indians full time anytime soon, if ever.

I see Martinez (post catching days) as a DH for the Indians, ala Edgar Martinez. He will play a little 1B sometimes but as a DH put up excellent consistent offensive numbers for years to come. And if the Indians already have that position filled by then, Victor will make excellent trade bait down the road.

In the meantime, he is the primary catcher for the Cleveland Indians. Because Victor Martinez taking over 1B full time means the logjam of 1B talent that is on the way gets stopped in its tracks.

The 1B position will be filled properly when one of the following happens:

Ryan Garko gets back on track. He has 2009 to prove himself.

Matt LaPorta, Beau Mills, Matt Whitney, Jordan Brown, or Michael Aubrey takes the position. I’ll be adding a Indians 2009 prospect list pretty soon and you will see at least a couple of of these names very high up on the list. They all have a legit opportunity to challenge for the 1B position as early as 2010.

So having Kelly Shoppach on the team is an unneeded luxury for the Indians. The guy is a full time catcher. His great offensive year should have other teams drooling. For instance, I’d bet the Boston Red Sox would be interesting in getting him back.

Trading Cliff Lee & Kelly Shoppach at their high value points should bring in one heck of a haul for the Indians. At the very least, they could expect to get some top end, close to major league ready pitching talent, which is sorely lacking in the upper minors. The only good pitching the Indians should be trading away are the ones they cannot afford. Otherwise they should be stockpiling it.