Josh Barfield at second base or Andy Marte at third base?

There is a lot of talk (Terry Pluto & fans) that shifting half the infield over for 2009, with Peralta moving to 3B and Cabrera to SS, is going to happen.

But every time I read about this, nobody mentions the big offensive and to a lesser extent - defensive, hole this creates at 2B.

I think the biggest reason this is never mentioned is that there are many people that:

a) don’t like  Jhonny Peralta defensively at SS

b) love the idea of Adrubal Cabrera at SS and feel he is being wasted defensively at 2B.

I’ll get to the offensive aspect of this in a little bit. But let’s look at the fielding defense aspect first.

Asdrubal Cabrera will improve the defense at the SS position if he is the regular there. The problem is, he also improved the defense at the 2B position being the regular there.

Let’s pretend the positve and negatives of each defensive change is graded a +1 or -1.

Asdrubal Cabrera (instead of Peralta) regular at  SS: +1

Josh Barfield (instead of Cabrera) regular at 2B: -1

Jhonny Peralta (instead of Marte) at 3B: -1

Net gain or loss: -1

That is a simplistic way of looking at it I know, but I could argue that the loss could even be greater given the collective result of the Indians downgrading two defensive positions on their infield.

And I’m not assuming that Jhonny Peralta would make a terrible third baseman either. Nobody knows, including the Indians right now, and that is something that will take at least a year of playing every day to get a better reading on.

It is possible that Peralta may be no worse than Casey Blake was, who was not a good defensive 3B.

The issue is, the Indians have a good glove guy for that position in Andy Marte. And if the whole point of making the move is really about improving the infield defense, if you break it down, it is clear that the collective result at best of this shifting everybody around will result in no change. There will still be an offensive hole too - just over at 2B instead of 3B.

Asdrubal Cabrera, as talented as he is with the glove? He is not going to be able to make up the defensive difference of damaging two other positions on the infield.

And please keep in mind, Cabrera just turned 23 years old. He has amazing talent, but as with all young players, his achilles heel early on is keeping his focus day in/day out. The thing that is Peralta’s strength - his steadiness on the routine plays, is Asdrubal’s weakness right now. So Cabrera will make plays at times that Peralta can’t there but could still end up with more errors than Peralta would have just on dumb plays.

Now for the offense aspect of this. First of all, unlike what some writers has implied - that 2B Luis Valbuena (acquired in the Seattle trade) is seen as a possibility for 2B - no way in hell is this going to happen going into the 2009 season.

First of all, Valbuena is a good prospect, not a great one. He needs a full year in AAA to see if his bat is legit. And don’t count on him for pop either as he’s shown none so far. IF things work out with him, he can be a nice contact/OBP hitter with average defense at 2B. Kudos to the Indians for getting him. But that doesnt mean people should run with it like he can be plugged into a starting spot on opening day 2009.

And even if he was ready, you would have to be completey not paying attention if you believed the Indians would prefer a rookie any day over even a utility infielder with some ML experience. Remember, Jaime Carroll is on the roster too.

So, this means that Josh Barfield’s offense is what we are going to get at 2B this year if this defensive shift happens. Let’s look at Barfield’s career offensive statistics so far:

992 at bats, .293 OBP, .374 SLG

He’s shown no on base ability whatsoever. His lefty/righty split is: .751 v LH pitching, .639 v RH pitching

Barfield might be good enough offensively to be considered a utility infielder but since he can only play 2B and not well at that, he is basically worthless.

The only positive thing I can say about him is that the book has not been completly written on his offensive abilities as he just turned 26. But if it were up to me, I’d shut the door on it in Cleveland at the ML level until he proves he can at least cut it in AAA again. Problem is, the Indians just traded for his replacement in Valbuena and Luis will need that playing time in AAA.

So there is really one battle for 2B in the Cleveland organization right now - at AAA. Neither Barfield or Valbuena should be considered realistic possibilities for 2B in 2009. If Cabrera is moved to SS, there is now a gaping hole at 2B.

Given Andy Marte’s offensive production at 3B so far, this position also is an offensive hole. The same can not be said for the defense though, which is above average with him manning the hot corner. Let’s look at Marte’s offensive numbers so far:

513 at bats, .265 OBP, .337 SLG

His lefty/right split: .749 v LH pitching, .545 v RH pitching.

There’s really not any difference worth talking about when trying to compare Marte’s offense to Barfield’s offense.

There are a couple of positives on Marte though. One is the fact he only has 513 at bats in the big leagues, which is roughly one year of ML experience. Another difference between he & Barfield’s playing time is that Marte’s has been part time over four years - the most at bats he’s gotten in one season is 235. Barfield has two straight years of full time at bats.

Marte is a year younger than Barfield and clearly has a much stronger minor league track record. For example, at age 21 Barfield was putting up a .728 OPS in AA. At age 21, Marte put up a .878 OPS in AAA.

Btw, there was another guy by the name of Brandon Phillips that age 21 put up a .823 OPS in combined playing time at AA & AAA. But Brandon never went higher than a .788 in AAA after that.

So clearly Marte was and is the better hitting prospect between he and Barfield. He’s also a year younger.

Marte was also a better hitting prospect than Brandon Phillips. Does that automatically mean that with consistent playing time over a couple of years he will put up better numbers than Phillips? Automatically? - no. Very possible? - yes.

So for me, this is an easy decision. Keep Cabrera and Peralta at 2B & SS respectively for 2009. I do not believe that at this stage in Cabrera’s career the defensive difference between he & Peralta at SS is greater than the one between he & Barfield at 2B. It would probably be a wash at this point.

If there is going to be one offensive hole in the infield, let it be with the younger guy (Marte) with better defense and more offensive upside.

There will be plenty of time to move Cabrera to SS. It will probably not be longer than two years from now as Peralta will be a free agent and the Indians probably won’t be able to afford him. In the meantime, he can get settled in at the ML level, both offensively & defensively, and be ready when the time comes.

Marte deserves at least one full year in the big leagues without have his playing time toyed with. There is no Blake or other veteran in the way now and so no reason whatsoever not to play him. And if they choose to play Jaime Carroll over him on a regular basis, they will just be repeating the same mistake that ended up costing them Brandon Phillips.

Unless the Indians are going to go out and actually pay money to get a legitimate veteran in here for either 2B or 3B for 2009, there is no question that one of these positions are looking like an offensive hole to start the season. I’d rather take the chance on the one at 3B and not start moving everybody around only to create a worse defensive one at 2B.

 

There has been a lot of speculation about him, most of it negative, which is what usually happens when a guy doesn’t play for a while or his performance drops off.

The steroids speculation is the nastiest as Hafner has been tested and there are no reports of him failing the tests.

Here are facts and a timeline of his injury issues:

Hafner has had injury issues going back to his minor league days. The main ones have affected both his wrist and shoulder. But he has had others - a broken toe when his Cleveland career was just getting started, plus two caused by being hit with pitches - concussion (2007 hit in head) and a broken right hand at the end of 2006.

The wrist problem originated in the Ranger’s minor league system and has continued to be a problem at times. In 2003 for instance, he missed 2+ months with it. In at least one instance the condition was referred to as tendinitis. This problem has also been referred to as to why he hasn’t be able to play 1B for any length of time and confined to DH duties.

Hafner’s right shoulder problem was first reported early in the 2008 season, around April. It was referred to as soreness that had been bothering him off and on for some time (spring traning of that year was mentioned). At times, elbow soreness was mentioned with it, but could have just been a result of the shoulder problem.

He was placed on the DL at the end of May 2008 for this problem. He had a lot of pain along with weakness while playing with it. The rehab, to make it stronger, could not be done while playing as it aggravated the condition.

There was a report at the end of June 2008 that Hafner’s right shoulder had shown some strength improvement (around 10%) but was still just 50% as strong as his left shoulder. 

Around the middle of June 2008, Hafner was advised by Dr. James Andrews to continue the strengthening program of his rotator cuff and shoulder girdle, that he didn’t think surgery would help his condition. Andrews’ opinion concurred with the Indians team doctor.

Hafner had gained enough strength back to start taking swings from soft toss around mid August 2008 and soon was able to start a rehab assignment in the minors. He ended up getting 41 at bats in September 2008 with the big league club.

But apparently, all the rehab wasn’t enough to get it back in playing shape, so surgery was done on it in October 2008. It was a 45 minute arthroscopic procedure and described as a cleaning out of his right shoulder joint. Nothing new was discovered wrong with it.

The most recent reports have Travis feeling great and about a month away from swinging a bat, if he gets the green light from his surgeon.

In the meantime, he’s been doing a strenuous excersize program in Cleveland under the guidance of the Indians head athletic trainer.

This last part has resulted in some weight loss. Nobody has said exactly how much weight Hafner has lost but this, in addition to his falloff in performance over the last year especially, has led to the negatiave speculation on him.

Now here are a few more facts along with my own speculation.

First of all, it is clear to me that Hafner’s performance problems in 2008 were due to his shoulder injury. It’s not even worth talking about anything else regarding this year. The only important thing moving forward is if it is something he has recovered from with the surgery and rehab, along with maintaining the health of it going forward.

His 2007 performance was mixed if you look at his month to month numbers. Here is his OPS by month:

April: 1.021

May: .849

June: .702

July: .721

August: .758

September: .965

Three good to great months and three bad ones.

This year - 2007, was the first time Hafner has ever experienced a prolonged slump in his ML career. It happens. Victor Martinez, for instance, had a two month bender in 2005 where his OPS ended in the .600 range each month.

It is possible the league finally adjusted and found something that was working against him a little bit in 2007. He had only averaged an OPS of 1+ the previous three years.

Maybe he was caught off guard and had major distractions for the first time in his career. He had gotten married in the offseason, got the big contract in July 2007, and had health problems in his family that year.

Also, the Indians gave him the big deal in eary July of 2007. I just want to clarify that because I’ve seen comments referring to the Indians being stupid for doing that deal when his performance had fallen off. All the Indians knew at that point was that he had a bad month in comparison to 3 years of elite performance. And you would think he got a clean bill of health before that contract was done.

So, other than the three months in 2007, I look at Hafner’s problems as all injury related. And given a return to good health, I expect him to return to his elite status as a hitter. He’s always been one, going back to his minor league days.

The recent reported weight loss does not worry me at all. In fact, it is a great sign that his head is focused on baseball by him doing 5 hour daily workouts in Cleveland this offseason. All I care about is that he is healthy and has time to get his great plate discipline skills back for 2009. That is what always set him apart. Everything else is a byproduct of that.

 

The 31 year old Wood will be plugged in at closer for the next two years at a cost of $20 million.

There is a third vested option year which is great as the Indians can keep him if he stays relatively healthy and performs. GM Mark Shapiro will formally announce the deal later today along with more details.

With this signing and the addition of RH submariner Joe Smith, the Indians bullpen suddenly looks like the strength of the team with lots of depth. It slides last year’s reliable closer Jensen Lewis back to a setup role. The breakdown will look something like this:

Closer: Kerry wood

7th & 8th inning: Take your pick: Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, Kobayashi, Betancourt.

There is also depth in the form of younger players: Eddie Mujica, Tony Sipp, Jeff Stevens.

And so there isn’t a whole lot of risk here if Wood were to lose time to injury over the next two years, other than to one guy’s wallet.

This, in my opinion, is a great signing by Mark Shapiro, maybe his best free agent signing since being GM. It is the first time he has given obtaining premium talent the highest priority in his free agent shopping.

Kerry Wood was the best closer talent on the market this year.